More fun with Math!
I saw this on Yahoo along with the rumors...
The average score of our 252 games last year was 117.17 - 89.89. Winners average 117.17 and losers averaged 89.89. Let's look at where 2016 stacked up when all was said and done.
Scoring in the 40's -
2 times (0.8%) of all games. Both losses, but weirdly a losing margin of only 40.8 points. One might think the margin would be larger, but in both instances the other team only scored in the 80s.
Scoring in the 50's -
4 times (1.6%) of all games. All were losses.
Scoring in the 60's -
11 times (4.3%) of all games. 10 losses & 1 win. That's a 0.091 winning %. The 1 win came against a team that scored in the 50's, so that was fortunate.
Scoring in the 70's -
21 times (8.3%) of all games. 20 losses & 1 win. That's a 0.047 winning %. The 1 win came against a team that scored in the 60's, so that was also fortunate.
So scoring 79 points or under is basically a guaranteed loss. Teams were 2-36 (0.053).
Scoring in the 80's -
39 times (15.5%) of all games. 29 losses & 10 wins. That's a 0.256 winning %. We have our first jump in actually having a chance to win. It's still not real high, but there's still a chance. We also have a jump in occurrences. 15% of games, teams scored in the 80's.
So scoring 89 points or under is 12-65 (0.156).
Scoring in the 90's -
30 times (11.9%) of all games. 20 losses & 10 wins. That's a 0.333 winning %. Weird that there were more 80's games than 90's games, but so it was. Team's winning % goes up to 1 out of 3.
So scoring 99 points or under is 22-85 (0.206). Wow, that's 107 games out of 252 (42.46%) almost half, where teams are only winning 1 out of 5 games. If you're not hitting triple digits, your not winning, or at best your barely winning, and at worst your getting run off the field.
Scoring in the 100's -
48 times (19%) of all games. 24 losses & 24 wins. We've hit 0.500 ball. Scoring in the 100's is a coin flip. Damn near 1/5th of our games are coin flips, wow.
We can see though if you're a team living in the 90's and 100's, that's 34-44 (.436). That doesn't win divisions or make the playoffs, at least not often. It takes a crazy lucky schedule for success.
Scoring in the 110's -
38 times (15%) of all games. 9 losses & 29 wins. We've found the tipping point. It's somewhere in here. .763 winning % scoring in the 110's. Teams have almost an 80% chance of winning, or even if we said 75% chance, that's pretty good.
If a team can keep their scoring consistently in the 100's & 110's, that's 53-33 (0.616). Now you're talking about competing for division crowns and making playoffs.
Scoring in the 120's -
24 times (9%) of all games. 18 wins & 6 losses. That's winning (0.750). It may be a bit surprising it's not a better winning %, but teams do score more sometimes.
We can see, if a team consistently keeps their scoring between 100-129 each week, they're looking at 71-39 (0.645) and those numbers will get you where you want to go. And it's doable, 110 games (43.6%). All a team has to do is stay in that top 43%. Easier said than done, I know.
Scoring in the 130's -
18 times (7.1%) of all games. 16 wins & 2 losses. .888 winning % and really the losses are super unfortunate and really unlikely, but they happen.
Scoring in the 140's -
11 times (4.4%) of all games. 11 wins & 0 losses. You can still be beat, but it's super rare. If you score the the 140's or higher, you should be golden. It just doesn't happen very often.
Scoring in the 150's -
5 times (1.9%) of all games. 5 wins & 0 losses.
Scoring in the 160's -
1 time (0.4%) of all games. 1 win (me slapping one on Beas, hehehehe)
We all want to score a lot of points, but we can see it just doesn't happen that often. Times scored over 120 were 51-8 (.864) and 23% of all games, so yeah you'd like to live there during a fantasy season.
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